We live in a world where the future is unknown and unknowable. Prediction fails us. Yet some people world makers and expert entrepreneurs are able to act, create, and build in uncertainty. How? By following a different logic of thinking & action.

The Effectual Method emerged from the pioneering research of Professor Saras D. Sarasvathy at the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business. Her landmark 2001 article “Causation and Effectuation: Toward a Theoretical Shift from Economic Inevitability to Entrepreneurial Contingency” is among the most cited works in entrepreneurship literature. In 2022, she received the Global Award for Entrepreneurship Research - the highest international honour in the field - for the way her work has reshaped how we understand entrepreneurship and decision-making under uncertainty.

Over the past two decades, Saras and her collaborators have produced more than 200 peer-reviewed papers, building one of the most robust bodies of evidence in the field.

Effectuation shows that those who create enduring ventures or what philosopher Nelson Goodman calls as “world makers” do not rely on forecasts or rigid strategies. Instead, they:

• Begin with what they already have.

• Commit only what they can afford to lose.

• Build trustworthy partnerships.

• Turn surprises into opportunities.

• Focus on what they can control.

This logic of action has transformed both research and practice worldwide.

Put simply: effectuation is a way to act when the future can’t be predicted. World makers - whether they sit on boards, lead teams, start companies, or design a second act don’t wait for certainty. They begin with the means already in hand, stake only what they can afford to lose, invite partners, turn surprises into openings, and stay focused on what they can actually control.

It is a practical, science-backed method for turning uncertainty into new futures in organizations, in leadership, and in life.

Five principles that, together, form a powerful logic of action in uncertainty.

1. Bird-in-Hand

Start with your means.
World makers don’t wait for the “perfect idea” or unlimited resources. They begin with who they are, what they know, and whom they know. By working with their current means, they uncover new possibilities that prediction alone could never reveal.

2. Affordable Loss

Limit the downside, then take the step.
Instead of chasing the largest possible return, effectual actors decide what they can afford to lose - in time, money, energy, or reputation - and move forward within that boundary. This principle makes action possible even in high uncertainty.

3. Crazy Quilt

Co-create with the willing.
Rather than planning everything alone, world makers invite self-selected partners to join their journey. Each partner brings new means, and with them, new directions. The quilt of commitments stitched together is often stronger than any solo plan.

4. Lemonade

Turn surprises into openings.
In an uncertain world, setbacks and shocks are inevitable. Effectual actors treat them not as failures but as raw material. They adapt, improvise, and sometimes discover better opportunities than the ones they first imagined.

5. Pilot-in-the-Plane

Control beats prediction.
The future is not something to be forecasted and waited for — it is something to be made. By focusing on what is within their control, world makers act as pilots of their own planes, shaping outcomes rather than being carried along by fate.

Why These Principles Matter

These five principles are not steps in a process but a logic of action. They work together, enabling people to act meaningfully without waiting for certainty. Whether you are an organization, a leader, a founder, or a midlifer, they offer a practical way to turn uncertainty into new futures.